The potential for agricultural land use change to reduce flood risk in a large watershed          下载免费PDF全文

Keith E. Schilling  Philip W. Gassman  Catherine L. Kling  Todd Campbell  Manoj K. Jha  Calvin F. Wolter  Jeffrey G. Arnold 《水文研究》2014,28(8):3314-3325

Effects of agricultural land management practices on surface runoff are evident at local scales, but evidence for watershed‐scale impacts is limited. In this study, we used the Soil and Water Assessment Tool model to assess changes in downstream flood risks under different land uses for the large, intensely agricultural, Raccoon River watershed in Iowa. We first developed a baseline model for flood risk based on current land use and typical weather patterns and then simulated the effects of varying levels of increased perennials on the landscape under the same weather patterns. Results suggest that land use changes in the Raccoon River could reduce the likelihood of flood events, decreasing both the number of flood events and the frequency of severe floods. The duration of flood events were not substantially affected by land use change in our assessment. The greatest flood risk reduction was associated with converting all cropland to perennial vegetation, but we found that converting half of the land to perennial vegetation or extended rotations (and leaving the remaining area in cropland) could also have major effects on reducing downstream flooding potential. We discuss the potential costs of adopting the land use change in the watershed to illustrate the scale of subsidies required to induce large‐scale conversion to perennially based systems needed for flood risk reduction. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

改进的小波阈值函数对变形监测数据的去噪研究     

甘若  陈天伟  郑旭东  段青达  潘梅 《大地测量与地球动力学》2020,40(1):17-22

基于小波分析中传统的阈值函数,结合其他学者提出的小波阈值函数,提出一种改进的小波阈值函数,并将其应用于变形监测数据的去噪处理。理论分析和算例表明,新的小波阈值去噪函数能够有效去除噪声。  相似文献   

甘肃省地热资源赋存特征及潜力评价     

谢娜  喻生波  丁宏伟  张明泉 《中国地质》2020,47(6):1804-1812

甘肃省地热资源丰富，其地热资源的开发利用具有较大的潜力。本文介绍了甘肃省地热资源分布概况，结合地区构造、地热水化学特征、地热资源量及开发利用现状探讨了甘肃隆起山地对流型与沉积盆地传导型地热资源的赋存特征，并对两种类型地热资源潜力进行了分析评价。结果表明，沉积盆地地热资源分布于河西、陇西及陇东盆地等，热储类型为裂隙型和孔隙型，热储层自元古宙至新生代均有发育，岩性以砂岩为主；隆起山地型地热资源主要分布于祁连山和西秦岭造山带，热储类型为断裂破碎带，岩性以花岗岩为主；通过潜力计算得知，全省热量开采系数≥0.4的仅占29.17%，表明目前甘肃地热资源开采程度较低，开采潜力较大。  相似文献   

一种海绵城市社会效益计算方法:以天津大学北洋园校区为例     

李萌萌  郭祺忠  练继建  陈亮 《地学前缘》2020,27(3):281-289

海绵城市的社会效益是指海绵设施建成后对社会的贡献,其远大于海绵城市所产生的直接经济效益。但是,海绵城市的社会效益难以客观计算,这阻碍了人们对海绵城市的深入了解。因此,客观合理计算海绵城市的社会效益不仅可以反映海绵城市建设是否合理有效,也可为政策的制定提供参考。为此,本文提出一种将主观评价与客观计算相结合的海绵城市社会效益计算方法,通过对可客观计算的社会效益进行主观评价,利用客观计算的效益值将主观评价分值货币化,以此客观计算其他仅可主观评价的社会效益。文中以天津大学北洋园校区为例计算校区内海绵设施的社会效益,结果显示:该校区雨水花园、下凹式绿地和雨水湿地等5种海绵设施的社会效益为1.0~15.5元/(m²·a),植草沟为2.97元/(m·a)。其中,社会效益最高的是雨水湿地,下凹式绿地社会效益最低。根据天津大学北洋园校区各海绵设施建设面积,该校区海绵设施总社会效益约为232.8万元/a。  相似文献   

The spatial local accuracy of land cover datasets over the Qiangtang Plateau,High Asia     

Liu  Qionghuan  Zhang  Yili  Liu  Linshan  Li  Lanhui  Qi  Wei 《地理学报(英文版)》2019,29(11):1841-1858

We analyzed the spatial local accuracy of land cover (LC) datasets for the Qiangtang Plateau, High Asia, incorporating 923 field sampling points and seven LC compilations including the International Geosphere Biosphere Programme Data and Information System (IGBPDIS), Global Land cover mapping at 30 m resolution (GlobeLand30), MODIS Land Cover Type product (MCD12Q1), Climate Change Initiative Land Cover (CCI-LC), Global Land Cover 2000 (GLC2000), University of Maryland (UMD), and GlobCover 2009 (Glob-Cover). We initially compared resultant similarities and differences in both area and spatial patterns and analyzed inherent relationships with data sources. We then applied a geographically weighted regression (GWR) approach to predict local accuracy variation. The results of this study reveal that distinct differences, even inverse time series trends, in LC data between CCI-LC and MCD12Q1 were present between 2001 and 2015, with the exception of category areal discordance between the seven datasets. We also show a series of evident discrepancies amongst the LC datasets sampled here in terms of spatial patterns, that is, high spatial congruence is mainly seen in the homogeneous southeastern region of the study area while a low degree of spatial congruence is widely distributed across heterogeneous northwestern and northeastern regions. The overall combined spatial accuracy of the seven LC datasets considered here is less than 70%, and the GlobeLand30 and CCI-LC datasets exhibit higher local accuracy than their counterparts, yielding maximum overall accuracy (OA) values of 77.39% and 61.43%, respectively. Finally, 5.63% of this area is characterized by both high assessment and accuracy (HH) values, mainly located in central and eastern regions of the Qiangtang Plateau, while most low accuracy regions are found in northern, northeastern, and western regions.

  相似文献   

长白山景区旅游安全风险动态评价研究   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

孙滢悦  杨青山  陈鹏 《地理科学》2019,39(5):770-778

以长白山景区旅游安全为研究对象,以鱼骨图、动态贝叶斯、GIS技术等为基本研究方法,从研究区自然环境、社会环境及责任人为3个方面出发,筛选景区致险因子,构建景区旅游安全风险危险性评价指标体系,利用动态贝叶斯方法综合构建景区旅游安全风险动态评价模型;并以实测数据及景区统计数据为依据,划分景区旅游安全风险评价的4个动态时段,综合实现景区旅游安全风险动态风险评价。研究结果表明：① 中等以上风险区域呈条带状分布;② 高风险区域与主要景点重合;③ 长白山景区安全风险发生高概率的时段发生在第三个时段（12:00~14:00）;较高概率发生分别在第二个时段（10:00~12:00）与第四个时段（14:00~16:00）;中等概率发生较高的时段在第四个时段（14:00~16:00）;较低概率发生在第一个时段（8:00~10:00）。  相似文献   

张掖盆地地下水硝酸盐污染与人体健康风险评价     

盛丹睿  温小虎  冯起  武君  司建华  吴敏 《中国沙漠》2019,39(5):37-44

地下水是张掖盆地的重要水资源，其硝酸盐污染尚未得到足够重视。对张掖盆地2004、2015年地下水硝酸盐浓度进行了系统分析，并采用美国环境保护署（USEPA）推荐的健康风险评价模型评估了地下水硝酸盐的健康风险。结果表明：自2004年以来张掖盆地地下水硝酸盐污染日趋严重。2015年硝酸盐浓度最高已达到283.32 mg·L^-1，17.61%的采样点硝酸盐氮浓度超过GB5749-2006《生活饮用水卫生标准》中饮用地下水限量值（20 mg·L^-1）。研究区人群经皮肤接触途径摄入硝酸盐的健康风险在可接受水平，而饮水摄入硝酸盐的健康风险较高，总风险中饮水途径引起健康风险的贡献率占99.40%，远大于皮肤接触途径。儿童经饮水摄入和皮肤接触两种途径的健康风险均显著高于成人，分别为成人的1.544倍和1.039倍。32.39%的采样点地下水硝酸盐对儿童的健康风险超出了可接受水平，14.79%的采样点地下水硝酸盐对成人的健康风险不可接受。甘州区城区、临泽县北部边缘及高台县城区周围硝酸盐浓度最高，这些区域内所有人群都面临硝酸盐引发的高健康风险，其余区域硝酸盐引发的健康风险相对较低。  相似文献   

Formulation of risk-targeted seismic action for the force-based seismic design of structures     

Jure Žižmond  Matjaž Dolšek 《地震工程与结构动力学》2019,48(12):1406-1428

A risk-targeted design spectral acceleration and the corresponding seismic design action for the force-based design of structures is introduced by means of two formulations. The first one called direct formulation utilizes the seismic hazard function at the site of the structure. Because the seismic action defined in the codes is often associated with a designated return period, an indirect formulation is also introduced. It incorporates a risk-targeted safety factor that can be used to define a risk-targeted reduction factor. It is shown that the proposed formulations give analogical results and provide an insight into the concept of the reduction of seismic forces for the force-based seismic design of structures if the objective is defined by a target collapse risk. The introduced closed-form solution for the risk-targeted reduction factor can be used to investigate how the target collapse risk, the seismic hazard parameters, the randomness of the seismic action, and the conventional parameters (ie, the overstrength factor and the deformation and energy dissipation capacity) affect the seismic design forces in the case of force-based design. However, collaborative research is needed in order to develop appropriate models of these parameters. In the second part of the paper, the proposed formulations are demonstrated by estimating the risk-targeted seismic design action for a six-storey reinforced concrete building. By verifying the collapse risk of the designed structure, it is demonstrated that the risk-targeted seismic action, in conjunction with a conventional force-based design, provided structure with acceptable performance when measured in terms of collapse risk.  相似文献   

On the correction of spectra by a displacement reduction factor in direct displacement-based seismic design and assessment     

Gian Michele Calvi 《地震工程与结构动力学》2019,48(6):678-685

The application of some design and assessment approaches, such as the direct displacement-based design (DDBD) and the capacity spectrum methods, requires the modification of elastic design spectra by some displacement reduction factor, to account for the appropriate energy dissipation capacity of different structures. While several equations to correlate dissipation and hysteresis cycles are available, once the displacement reduction factor has been obtained, the correction of the spectra is operated reducing the displacement demand accordingly and conserving the period of vibration at each point. This procedure is here discussed and proved to be conceptually inappropriate, because the spectral acceleration rather than the period should be kept at each point. The application of this alternative procedure may result in increased shear strength demand in design and in larger required displacement capacity for the same level of strength in assessment, if all other factors are not modified. However, the calibration of the reduction factors applied in DDBD has been extensive, and the method has proved to be effective in predicting displacement demands consistent with those resulting from refined nonlinear time history analysis; therefore, a possible introduction of the proposed correction will require equally extensive studies and possibly compensating corrections in the calculation of the equivalent damping. On the contrary, an appropriate calibration of the factors to be used in the application of the “capacity spectrum” method is still being developed, and the consideration of a constant acceleration may facilitate the derivation of effective equations.  相似文献   

Configurations of community in flood risk management     

Aleksi Räsänen  Vera Kauppinen  Sirkku Juhola  Gunhild Setten  Haakon Lein 《Norsk geografisk tidsskrift. Norwegian journal of geography》2020,74(3):165-180

ABSTRACT

Despite a notable increase in the literature on community resilience, the notion of ‘community’ remains underproblematised. This is evident within flood risk management (FRM) literature, in which the understanding and roles of communities may be acknowledged but seldom discussed in any detail. The purpose of the article is to demonstrate how community networks are configured by different actors, whose roles and responsibilities span spatial scales within the context of FRM. Accordingly, the authors analyse findings from semi-structured interviews, policy documents, and household surveys from two flood prone areas in Finnish Lapland. The analysis reveals that the ways in which authorities, civil society, and informal actors take on multiple roles are intertwined and form different types of networks. By implication, the configuration of community is fuzzy, elusive and situated, and not confined to a fixed spatiality. The authors discuss the implications of the complex nature of community for FRM specifically, and for community resilience more broadly. They conclude that an analysis of different actors across scales contributes to an understanding of the configuration of community, including community resilience, and how the meaning of community takes shape according to the differing aims of FRM in combination with differing geographical settings.  相似文献